Race to Arctic Dominance: Why Greenland is in the Geopolitical Spotlight

In the depths of the Cold War, as Soviet Union missiles in Cuba locked onto coordinates for United States cities, an operation was underway beneath the Greenland ice sheet in subzero temperatures. The ambitious mission, known as Project Iceworm, drilled through thick ice with plans to build an under-ice railroad to transport nuclear missiles, until the ice began to cave in.

The top-secret operation would have allowed mobile missiles to be transported throughout the under-ice network, avoiding detection from the then-Soviet Union. Given the distance between Greenland and the Soviet Union, the missiles would have been able to reach the Soviets in the event of a retaliatory attack.

Dr. Mary Thompson-Jones said the background of the idea originated from using a nuclear weapon to end WWII in Japan, which shed light on the possibility of using nuclear weapons for “peaceful purposes” and as a “deterrent.” However, she said the project failed due to the discovery of the ice tunnels caving in and moving.

Thompson-Jones is a professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and was a Career Foreign Service Officer and Public Diplomacy Specialist for the U.S. Department of State for over 22 years. She said the views she expressed to Media Milwaukee “do not represent the U.S. Navy or the U.S. government,” and spoke on her own behalf.

As three global superpowers vie for an increasing Arctic presence, each seeks different aspects that are driving forces of interest in Greenland. For the U.S., it is about national security; for China, it is about economic opportunities through rare earth metals that are key factors in producing technology; and for Russia, it is about having more control over the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap for its submarine fleet, according to Dr. Troy J. Bouffard.

Bouffard is an assistant professor of Arctic Security in the College of Business and Security Management at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, where he has been since 2014. He also directs UAF’s Center for Arctic Security and Resilience, which focuses on strategic and operational challenges to the Arctic region’s national security. Bouffard was a former congressional fellow and Arctic advisor to Alaska U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Like her former Arctic advisor, Murkowski, R-Alaska, told Media Milwaukee in a June 25 interview following a Hudson Institute event in Washington, D.C., that Greenland plays an important role not only in the United States’ national security interest but also in North America’s.

“When we think about the role that Greenland plays in U.S. security, I put it in the North American security because we can’t cover it all,” Murkowski said. “We can’t cover it without Canada; we can’t cover the east end without Greenland, and so this is all key to a more integrated system.

As multiple U.S. military operations have occurred since the start of 2026 in Venezuela and the ongoing conflict in Iran, Bouffard said the U.S. interest in Greenland is “absolute and real.” Specifically, Bouffard said hypersonic cruise missiles are a “new era of threats,” and the U.S. and Canada will have to work together to build a new defense system.

Dr. Shale Horowitz, a professor of Political Science and director of International Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, has research interests in international and ethnic conflicts, said that the U.S. is playing “catch-up” in the Arctic region.

“It’s usually the case with democracies that they ignore something for as long as possible,” Horowitz said. “I think it’s mainly because Trump saw this as a prestige opportunity, maybe to get U.S. control on top of the strategic issues. He made a big issue out of it. But I think it would have incrementally received increased attention from the U.S., on the basis that the more these trade routes and potential military uses open up, this is something that our rivals or adversaries, potential enemies, could potentially exploit.”

The locality of Greenland presents a unique opportunity, or challenge, for the U.S. due to the proximity of the northeast region of the country, specifically, New York City and Washington D.C. A base that is close to major cities in the hands of an adversary could create a risk comparable to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

“It’s more a question of they [U.S.] don’t want a creeping Chinese and/or Russian presence there in the way that has occurred in many of these Pacific islands, obviously in a stronger form in Cuba or Venezuela,” Horowitz said.

China’s driving factor is reaping the economic benefits of Greenland because of the rapidly melting ice, revealing more potential mining opportunities. Although China has had a presence in the last 10 years or so, Bouffard said the chance of Chinese success in the region is “very, very low.”

“We’ve seen some interest from China trying to engage and entrench themselves economically like they do elsewhere in the world, trying to take care of a vulnerable population or society or country, entrench themselves,” said Bouffard. “That didn’t work at all.”

Despite Bouffard’s claim that the chance of Chinese success in the region, and a possible acquisition of Greenland, is “very, very low,” Dr. Samantha Hagle, a professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee who specializes in comparative politics and international relations, said that China is “the one to watch,” due to Russia’s military priority in Ukraine.

“Their [Russia’s] hands have been tied trying to deal with Ukraine as a priority,” Hagle said. “They’re stretched pretty thin from what I’ve seen combat-wise.”

Horowitz agreed with Hagle’s assessment that Russia is already preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, saying “Russia alone is just not capable of fighting NATO and the United States,” nevertheless, fighting them over Greenland.

“Russia now is like a shadow of what it was in terms of its strength during the Soviet period,” Horowitz said.

A U.S. presence on the world’s largest island dates back roughly to the depths of WWII. When Denmark was conquered and subsequently fell to Nazi invasion, the Danes were unable to supply their territories, including Greenland, for roughly four years until the end of the war. During this time, the U.S. filled the void of providing humanitarian aid to Greenland.

In addition to providing Greenlanders’ humanitarian aid, the U.S. mission in Greenland was to deny Nazi access to the island. Thompson-Jones said the effort to block the Nazi’s from the region was to protect the weather stations that predicted weather for the North Sea and shipping, but also a cryolite factory on the southwestern side of Greenland, where most of the U.S. bases were located.

“Back then, airplanes were made with aluminum, and cryolite was a key ingredient in producing aluminum for aircraft,” Thompson-Jones said. “During the war, the United States was trying to produce about one aircraft a day.”

Following the end of WWII and during the Cold War, in 1951, the Defense of Greenland Agreement was signed, allowing the U.S. to have an expanded military presence in Greenland, including the construction of the Thule Air Base, which was later renamed to the Pituffik Space Base.

The Pituffik Space Base during the Cold War played an important role in Soviet Union deterrence because it was in line of a potential missile threat that would’ve had to cross over to hit the U.S. mainland if launched from Soviet Union territory. Similarly, the base limited Soviet submarine threats due to detection in the GIUK gap.

While tensions and competition are elevated in the Arctic and an agreement that secures the right for the U.S. to add military bases if needed, Murkowski said the base is “more than adequate” to cover the current operations in the region.

The Pituffik Space Base is tucked away in the mystical northern region of Greenland, but in Nuuk, there is a constant military presence.

The Joint Arctic Command center borders the Port of Nuuk, with Danish and other European soldiers, like German soldiers, coming and going.

Most were observed walking around the building and moving back and forth to the Port of Nuuk, where three Royal Danish Navy Patrol Vessels, F357, P570, and P571, are docked. The vessels’ primary objectives are patrolling and have icebreaking capabilities.

Their presence is unofficial, with a limited crew on board, and typically, one guard stands on the metal ramp entrance to the ships. The F357 even had a pizza delivery worker park in front of the ramp, get out of the car with five boxes of pizza and walk on board.

Since the Cold War, military technology has rapidly evolved, including the different types of missiles and how they can be launched at targets. This has created “a new era of threats.”

“It’s going to take a long time and a lot of money to deal with how we deal with hypersonic cruise missiles,” Bouffard said. “This is the threat of our future decades.”

Hypersonic cruise missiles, which Bouffard said are “much different than ballistic missiles,” can be launched from “anywhere and everywhere,” due to the capability of being launched from the air, land and sea. Hypersonic cruise missiles don’t have to leave orbit and can fly at “just about any altitude,” compared to ballistic missiles that go into outer space then reenter at a predictable arc.

“That makes the threat completely different,” Bouffard said. “We now have to redo the entire North American missile defense system as a result.”

Trump signed an initiative that creates a missile defense system capable of combating these new types of missiles, known as the Golden Dome. The Golden Dome, like Israel’s Iron Dome, is a defense system initiative signed one week after Trump’s inauguration for his second term, Executive Order 14186.

“The Golden Dome will include space-based interceptors and sensors,” said Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in a May 20, 2025, statement. “Some U.S. technology in space, such as space-based sensors and air and missile defense exist today, but all of the systems comprising the Golden Dome architecture will need to be seamlessly integrated. Golden Dome will be fielded in phases, prioritizing defense where the threat is greatest.”

According to a March 2024 report from The Simons Foundation Canada, there are 69 Arctic military sites along the Arctic Ocean coastline, 32 of which are Russian, Norway has 15, the U.S. has 10 and Greenland/Denmark has three. Thompson-Jones isn’t surprised by that number and said Russia is the “archetypal Arctic nation, and whether we like it or not, they have Arctic territory.” She mentions that the sizes of the bases can vary.

“Some of them are bases on paper that have not necessarily come to fruition because Russian resources have been invested elsewhere, particularly Ukraine,” Thompson-Jones said. “So, you know, define bases.”

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This story is part of a semester-long investigative reporting project into Greenland’s people, history, and culture. It was created by an advanced reporting class in the Journalism, Advertising, and Media Studies program at UW-Milwaukee. Other stories from the project are available on Edge of the Arctic: Greenland, the Land of the People.

This work was made possible through the support of MPC Endowment Ltd., the philanthropic affiliate of the Milwaukee Press Club, and a private donor.