Fewer Routes or Longer Waits? MCTS Weighs Major Bus Service Changes

Photo By: Han Zheng

For some Milwaukee County bus riders, a longer wait could become part of the daily commute. For others, the bigger concern is whether their bus route will even still exist. As federal pandemic relief funding runs dry and budget deficits grow, the Milwaukee County Transit System (MCTS) is considering service changes that could reduce its network by 25%.

At an Oct. 8 meeting of the Milwaukee Common Council’s Public Transportation, Utilities and Waterways Review Board, MCTS President and CEO Steve Fuentes discussed the agency’s efforts to prepare for financial challenges while developing a bus network that can stay sustainable in the years to come.

The agency showed two possible approaches to redesigning its bus network. One would put more resources into routes with the most riders, allowing buses to arrive more frequently. The other would keep service available across more communities, even if riders had to wait longer between buses.

Milwaukee County residents have an opportunity to weigh in on the proposed changes. MCTS began its fall public engagement period on Sept. 16, with feedback scheduled to continue through Oct. 26. Residents can review the concepts, maps, and related information through the Milwaukee County Transit System’s website and share their thoughts on the proposed approaches.

Neither concept is a final plan. But with millions of dollars in projected deficits ahead, MCTS is preparing for the possibility that it may not have enough money to keep its current level of service.

“We have to prepare for it,” Fuentes said, referring to the possibility of major service cuts.

Federal funding runs out as deficits grow.

For the past five to six years, MCTS has relied on about $192 million in federal American Rescue Plan Act funding to maintain bus service, Fuentes told the board. That money helped the agency continue operating without making the same level of cuts it might otherwise have faced. Now, nearly all of the funding has been spent, leaving MCTS to plan for a future with less federal support.

The financial projections show why officials are so concerned. A forecast from the Milwaukee County comptroller’s office projected a $15.7 million deficit for MCTS in 2027, growing to $37 million by 2031. Fuentes said the county executive’s proposed budget would alleviate some pressure, but the agency could still face a deficit of $18 million to $20 million in 2028.

This challenge even goes beyond the end of pandemic relief. MCTS receives funding from different sources, like federal and state aid, Milwaukee County tax levy funding, vehicle registration fees, and passenger fares. When those sources do not provide enough money to cover operating costs, the agency has to consider where it can save money, including whether it can continue running every route.

State funding is another concern. Fuentes and other officials said state transit assistance was cut in 2011 and has not kept pace with inflation. Fuentes estimated that adjusting state transit funding for inflation would provide MCTS with about $58 million more than it received the previous year.

Milwaukee County has also increased its contribution to transit. Officials said during the meeting that the county’s contribution had more than doubled in roughly five years. But the county is dealing with its own budget challenges, limiting how much more support it may be able to provide.

Without a more reliable source of ongoing funding, MCTS could be faced with more cuts as federal assistance runs out. That financial pressure is pushing the agency’s search for a bus network it can afford to operate.

Two concepts, two different priorities

To explore its options, MCTS hired Jarrett Walker + Associates, a transit planning consulting firm. The firm helped come up with two concepts to show residents what different approaches to the bus network could look like. The goal is to get feedback about the trade-offs, not to announce a final decision.

Jesus Ochoa, MCTS director of service development, said the agency wants residents to consider both approaches before officials move forward with a future network plan.

The first concept focuses on ridership. It would concentrate service in more densely populated parts of Milwaukee County, where more people and jobs are located. Instead of spreading buses across as many routes, MCTS would focus on fewer routes and run buses more frequently along the corridors it keeps.

For riders on those routes, more frequent service could mean less wait time. But the approach could leave other areas with no bus service at all under the concept, including areas north of Silver Spring Drive and south of Oklahoma Avenue.

The second concept focuses on coverage. Rather than concentrating service in fewer corridors, it would keep bus access across a wider area, which would allow more communities to stay connected to the transit system. The trade-off is that buses could run less frequently, leaving riders with longer waits or less convenient connections.

The difference between the concepts comes down to how MCTS would distribute limited resources. One approach prioritizes serving more riders along selected routes. The other prioritizes keeping more communities within reach of public transportation.

Neither choice is simple for people who need these buses. A route with frequent service may make commuting easier for many riders, while a route that runs less often, or completely disappears entirely, could make it harder for some residents to reach work, medical appointments, and other essential destinations.

For people without any other way to get around, the changes could affect more than their travel time. They could influence how easily riders get to the places they need to go.

Airport service and route frequency raise questions.

The proposed changes also raised questions about specific routes and destinations during the meeting.

One area of concern was the connection to Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport. Under the ridership-focused concept, airport service would run every 30 minutes, and the route alignment would change. The proposed frequency and route changes prompted questions about how the concept could affect people traveling to and from the airport.

Fuentes and Ochoa said the concepts are meant to start a conversation about which routes, connections, and service levels matter most to residents. There is still time for changes as the planning process continues.

Additional funding could also give MCTS room to expand service rather than reduce it. Fuentes talked about the possibility of extending the Connect 1 route north to the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee if more money becomes available.

With more reliable funding, the agency could consider running buses more frequently, extending service hours, adding weekend or overnight service, and creating completely new routes.

That possibility adds another dimension to the debate. The agency is not only asking residents to consider what service they might be willing to lose, but also what improvements they would like to see if more funding becomes available.

For now, however, MCTS must plan around the possibility that its available resources will not be enough to maintain the existing network.

Public input will shape the next steps.

After the engagement period ends, MCTS plans to summarize the feedback and present its findings to the Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors. Officials expect the board to provide direction before the agency develops a draft network plan.

A second round of public engagement would follow the release of that draft. Ochoa said the agency is targeting fall 2027 for a final plan.

State funding decisions could also influence what happens next. MCTS officials hope future budget decisions will give more recurring revenue and reduce or eliminate the need for the service reductions outlined in the concepts. Wisconsin’s next biennial budget is expected to play an important role in determining how much transit service the agency can sustain.

The final decision will involve more than drawing new lines on a bus map. MCTS must weigh its financial limits against the needs of riders who need this system to get to their jobs, schools, medical appointments, and other communities across Milwaukee County.

For now, the agency is asking the residents of Milwaukee to help weigh those competing priorities. Whether the final network offers more frequent buses on fewer routes or maintains wider coverage with longer waits will depend on public feedback, county leaders’ decisions, and whether additional funding becomes available.