Marquette Law School Poll Reveals Tight Race

In a new Marquette Law School poll, results showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, with 52 percent of registered voters and 52 percent of likely voters supporting her, while Trump was behind with 48 percent among both groups.

The U.S. Senate race also remained competitive, with current Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading her Republican challenger Eric Hovde 52 percent to 48 percent among registered voters. Baldwin’s lead held among likely voters, where she garners 52 percent, compared to Hovde’s 47 percent.

The poll found that among voters initially  undecided in the Senate race, Baldwin’s lead grew when forced to choose between the two candidates.

The Marquette Law School Poll was conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 5, 2024, surveying 822 registered voters and 738 likely voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error for registered voters is 4.6 percentage points and for likely voters, it is 4.7 points. This poll follows the first Republican debate on Aug. 23.

The poll highlighted shifting enthusiasm among party supporters. Democratic voter enthusiasm surged from 40 percent in June to 72 percent in September, erasing the Republican enthusiasm advantage seen earlier in the year. 

More on the Wisconsin Polling Results

Republican enthusiasm remains relatively steady, rising from 57 percent in June to 63 percent in September. Independent voters, meanwhile, showed less enthusiasm than either party’s base, with a modest rise from June to July, followed by a slight decline in September.

Harris’s favorability improved slightly since July, with 47 percent of registered voters viewing her favorably, up from 41 percent. Trump’s favorability remained steady at 443 percent, with 56 percent holding an unfavorable view of him, unchanged from July. Both candidates still faced challenges with voters who disliked them both, although this group shrank from 11 percent in July to 8 percent in September.

When it came to key issues, Trump is viewed as stronger on immigration, border security, and the economy, while Harris is seen as better on healthcare, Medicare, and Social Security. However, the economy remains the most important issue for voters, followed by abortion policy and immigration.

Each party’s voters prioritized different issues: Republicans overwhelmingly focus on the economy and immigration, while Democrats emphasize abortion policy.

In an interview with PBS Wisconsin, Marquette Poll Director Charles Franklin noted that historically, the poll’s average margin of error between candidates is 2.5 points. 

“In 2016, it was a little over six points of error, but in 2022, we were off by 2.2 points, right at our average,” said Franklin. 

In the broader landscape of recent Wisconsin polling, Harris and Trump were closely matched, with the Marquette Law School Poll reflecting the tight race. As of Oct. 2, 2024, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris slightly ahead at 48.6 percent and Trump at 46.9 percent. 

On RealClearPolitics, Harris stands at 49.0 percent, with Trump trailing at 48.2 percent. This alignment across polling sources suggests a highly competitive contest in Wisconsin, reinforcing the state’s status as a key battleground in the 2024 election.

Wisconsin plays a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential election as one of the few swing states that could determine the outcome. With its 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin often serves as an indicator of broader national sentiment, particularly in close races.

As a state that flipped from Democratic support in 2016 to narrowly returning to the Democratic column in 2020, its swing state status underscores its importance.

Candidates are dedicating significant time and resources to Wisconsin, recognizing that a win here could tip the balance of the Electoral College.

Historically, small shifts in Wisconsin’s voter turnout and preferences have had a substantial impact on the overall result, which explains why both parties are intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters and bolster support in key regions of the state.

The attention on Wisconsin reflects its outsized importance on the electoral map. Only a handful of states like it are likely to determine who will win the 2024 presidential election.