“Pundits and Pollsters” Say Governor’s Race is a Toss-up

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Fall in Wisconsin means two things for those living in the state: football and politics.So it was no surprise to hear the Nov. 4 gubernatorial race described in a way that mirrors the great game of football.

That is exactly what happened on Wednesday afternoon as local experts gathered at the Newsroom Pub in downtown Milwaukee for the Milwaukee Press Club’s “Pollsters and Pundits” panel event.

Those on the panel included JR Ross of WisPolitics.com, Charles Franklin of the Marquette University Law School, and Craig Gilbert and Dan Bice, both of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The hour-long event was moderated by David Haynes of of the Journal Sentinel.

Incumbent Gov. Scott Walker is like the quarterback of the home team. He has led his team to victory twice before and now has a big game where he is hoping another victory will leave him the undefeated champ for four more years.With less than two weeks until election day, the latest Rasmussen Poll revealed that Democratic challenger Mary Burke is leading Walker by only one point. The Rasmussen Poll is often thought of being a conservative-leaning poll. At the same time, Public Policy Polling, an organization that is Democratic-leaning, has Walker leading by one point.

By any estimation, the polls reveal a tight contest. The game is tied, it is in the fourth quarter, and the winner will be determined by how they carry themselves through the end of the game.

“He’s been playing defense,” Ross said of Walker. “And she (Burke) needs a pass to win.”

The two debates between the candidates did little to affect the polls, according to Franklin, whose polls of Wisconsin races have been spot-on in recent years.

Unlike the sport of football, the winner is not determined simply by who plays the game better. The game of politics is ultimately determined by the fans, the people that show up on election day and vote.

Bice said, “It’s not just how many are turning out at the polls, it is who turns out at polls.”

All we can do is watch the final quarter in the election race. On Nov. 4, fans will be filling the polling stations, trying to help their team win the game. Will Walker retain his home field sweep in Madison? The clock is running down and soon we will know.

Lisa Erin Brown is a student at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. She covered the Milwaukee Press Club Newsmaker Luncheon as part of an assignment for the JAMS 500 course. To view a web video of the panel discussion, visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtJbYebUNtc.