Republicans are More Likely to Show Up to the Polls this November, Survey Says

An October Marquette University Law School Poll study found that among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson has 52% support and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has 46%, while the governor’s race is even closer, and voter turnout may be the tipping point.

Eighty-four percent of Republicans say they are absolutely certain to vote or have already voted, compared to 83% of Democrats. These contrast results from Sept., which placed Democrats more certain to vote than Republicans, according to the study.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 3-9 and interviewed 801 registered voters in Wisconsin. It’s closely monitored as the days count down to Nov. 8.

As Wisconsin voters prepare to head to the polls this November, candidates are ramping up their campaigns to push unsure voters in their direction. The race is close, and the difference between Republican and Democratic voters seems to be potential turnout.

“The results among all registered voters are more favorable to the Democratic candidates in both the governor and senate races, while totals for likely voters are, relatively, favorable for the Republican candidates,” the study said.

Among likely voters, 47% support Democratic candidate Gov. Tony Evers, while 46% prefer Republican opposer Tim Michels, according to the study. Evers and Michels are filling up the week before the election with bus tours and appearances to close the gap.

Independent voters may be the tipping point for these close numbers, and it seems it’s just as close. Forty-three percent of independents backed Evers and 44% preferred Michels. However, in the Senate race, 45% of independents chose Barnes, while 51% picked Johnson.

Evers Responds

Evers responded to the polls in a recent tweet, citing Michel’s position on healthcare. His tweet was accompanied by a graph showing the close projected votes between the candidates.

“My Republican opponent believes politicians like him should get to control your personal healthcare decisions – not you or your doctor,” Evers tweeted. “That is fundamentally wrong. Help me make sure Tim Michels loses this November.”

Evers’ campaign for re-election follows dwindling approval rates for his last term. In Feb. 2022, the governor had a net approval rate of nine; as of Oct. 2022, his net approval rate is negative two, according to the poll.

What Do Voters Care About?

The stakes are high for Wisconsin voters. Along with governor and senate races, issues like marijuana use and military style weapon possession will be on the ballot. Polls show Wisconsin voter concerns lie mainly in recent changes in the economy and social policy. Sixty-eight percent of voters are “very concerned” about inflation, and 56% are “very concerned” with abortion policy.

Concerns differ when it comes to party affiliation. The top concerns among Republicans were inflation, crime and illegal immigration, whereas Democrats were concerned with abortion policy and gun violence.

According to the poll, the importance of abortion has increased significantly among Democrats since May 2022, while Republican and Independent concerns have increased at marginal levels.

However, voter uncertainty could be related to how people see their values aligning with candidates’. Marquette Polls found that for Senate candidates, voters reported a divide in the way their ideologies are represented.

“Both candidates are perceived as more strongly ideological than voters describe themselves,” the study said. “Voters are much more likely to describe themselves as ‘moderate’ than to describe either candidate that way.”

There is a clear distinction between the ways voters see candidates based on how they see themselves. For the governor race, voters were more likely to find Republican Michels as “very conservative” if their personal ideologies were liberal. Similarly, if voters considered themselves as conservative, they were more likely to view Democrat Evers as liberal.

Wisconsin voters care about seeing their values represented in office. When asked about which candidate better understands the problems faced by ordinary people, 49% of likely voters supported Evers and 44% chose Michels. In the Senate race, 47% of likely voters opted for Barnes, versus 43% who chose Johnson.

Early in-person voting has begun across Wisconsin, and there is still time to register to vote for November 8. Sites will open up across the state.