Why the Bucks-Celtics series will go seven games

As the Bucks approach their second Eastern Conference Finals appearance since the turn of the century, there is a gauntlet that is well-coached, experienced yet blossoming: the Boston Celtics. Their coach, Brad Stevens, whose mind works the way a Mandelbrot set looks, will be poised to take Monday night’s affair at TD Garden. (Oh, yeah, Kyrie Irving and the law of averages will buttress this seven-game argument, too.)

The series currently pegs the Bucks as front-runners, 2-1, over the foe who defeated them in last year’s postseason, in an opening round matchup that went seven games with a whole different version of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and no Kyrie Irving, among other things.

Entering Friday night, Milwaukee’s lineup of Bledsoe-Brown-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Lopez had posted the fourth-best defensive net rating (92.9) and net rating (24.1) among lineups that played over 30 minutes in these young playoffs. Now, granted, due to the NBA’s dated playoff-seeding (ahem), a majority of those numbers are pillowed by the fact the Bucks had to play the Detroit Pistons, a team that wouldn’t have even sniffed a playoff berth in the West; however, there is some weight here.

Malcolm Brogdon, whose plantar fascia injury has been beaten into the public consciousness ad infinitum (and rightfully so, given his valuableness to his team), still doesn’t have a concretized return date. The near-two months that he’s missed have led the Bucks to a 14-6 record — somewhat of a far cry from their 52-15 record with him.

With or without Brogdon, of course, the Bucks will host Game 5, and, thusly, wrap it up at the Fiserv Forum, a place where they have won over 80 percent of their games.

Al Horford, up until Game 3, had vanquished (along with his swarming teammates) Giannis in the restricted area, causing the Milwaukee star to shoot poorly and temporarily lose his confidence. On Friday night, however, Giannis spearheaded a Bucks’ effort to one-up the Celtics physically, as the Greek Freak attempted a career-high 22 free throws. Questionable Boston fouls allowed the Bucks to pinch a Celtics team, one that’s otherwise acute at halting transition offense, and set the precedent for the game: a lot of threes and freebies.

Assuming the C’s don’t fall into early foul trouble, it’ll be interesting to see how Boston coach Brad Stevens staggers lineup minutes, as there were a few times in Friday’s bout when Horford was on the bench, while Antetokounmpo was on the floor.

The Bucks have had good fortune hitherto, and their defensive scheme, or lack thereof, should be praised. That said, don’t expect Kyrie Irving to continue to struggle like this: through the first six postseason games, he was averaging 0.84 points per possession out of the pick and roll. Contrast that with his regular season mark of 0.99, and one must scratch one’s head. When Irving pushes the ball, Milwaukee is forced to rotate – something they haven’t done too frequently under the auspices of coach Mike Budenholzer. The Celtics should keep with this game plan, as long as Brogdon is sidelined. Even when he returns, the wing-guarding extraordinaire will likely appear ginger.

The C’s were offering a lot of baseline opportunities for Giannis, which isn’t ideal, considering that Giannis requires opposing defenses to throw multiple help defenders at him, by the time he sniffs the paint. It’s puzzling as to why Horford wasn’t glued to the MVP favorite all night. Expect Stevens to re-adjust.

Again, Kyrie needs to find his conscience. His shooting percentage off isolation plays has dipped, thanks to Eric Bledsoe’s consistent deflecting and pestering, paired with the Bucks’ disruptive length (Brook Lopez leads the Association in contests by a sizable margin, this playoffs) that has led to nasty blocks. The Celtics will adjust, as Stevens is too much of a mastermind not to realize that Milwaukee is fine with Marcus Morris heaving five three-pointers per game, or Jaylen Brown attempting seven. (The Bucks surrendered the most three-point attempts, on average all season – they don’t care.)

Back to the pick and rolls, which are often orchestrated by Irving and Horford: when Horford rolls toward the basket, or when the Bucks get caught on a switch and have Lopez on Irving, Lopez will often be seen vacationing near the rim. That may seem obvious, especially if the Bucks shade on Horford, who can also pop out with perspicacity. When either Boston circumstance culminates with a miss, Lopez can play the all-dangerous trailer role that he has all year for Milwaukee. Sure, he’s shooting 11-for-32 (which isn’t ridiculously far from his season percentage) from behind the arc these playoffs, but he’ll continue to get his hoists.

To make this series more competitive, the Celtics should slow the game down, and simply make buckets (Kyrie…) in the aforementioned ways. They should handicap the Bucks in transition, making easy fast-break opportunities come sporadically. Boston’s collapsing on and stonewalling of Giannis proved effective in the opening games, but the man’s confidence is not wavering. He’ll continue to ignite the Bucks’ offense by getting downhill, dishing out to the nightly hot shooter.

The Celtics must know that George Hill will not put up 21 points (on 75-percent shooting) again this series, nor will Giannis be working for most of his points at the charity stripe. (Another anomaly: note that both teams shot 32 free throws in Game 3, with the Bucks shooting at an inferior percentage….) The C’s were terrible at getting to the line, during the regular season. Elsewhere, they were chucking up a lot of shots from 10-19 feet – a Stevens cornerstone.

There is one more game in Boston, before the series quickly pivots to Milwaukee. The same cycle will then transpire if the stalemate is to continue. If this series is to go seven, what cannot be cyclical is the Celtics’ propensity to falling into the Bucks’ subterranean plot: mirror us and shatter your postseason aspirations. If Stevens changes course, NBA fans will be able to enjoy more poetic basketball.