New Marquette Law School Poll Reveals Wisconsin Voters Disapprove of Iran Conflict

A new Marquette Law School poll shows a clear majority of Wisconsin voters disapprove of recent U.S. military strikes on Iran, raising questions about public support for escalating conflict in the Middle East.

According to the survey conducted March 11–18, 61% of registered voters disapprove of the attacks, while just 39% approve. The strikes, ordered by President Donald Trump beginning Feb. 28, have quickly become one of the most polarizing issues in the nation.

This poll offers a snapshot of the public opinion following the escalation with Iran and signals potential consequences for members of Congress representing the state.

• Historically, public support is critical for sustaining military activity abroad.
• Partisan divides could influence upcoming elections and policy debates.
• Independent voters, often very decisive in swing states like Wisconsin, oppose the strikes.

Key Poll Findings on Iran Strikes

• 61% disapprove of U.S. military action.
• 39% approve of the strikes.
• Opposition spans beyond party lines, driven heavily by independents.

With the 2026 elections looming and congressional seats becoming available, the data suggests the Iran conflict could become a defining issue, testing voter tolerance for military intervention and shaping campaign messaging across parties. Voters may become less likely to vote for a member of Congress who supports the actions that the majority disagrees with.

The poll combined responses to its questions about both “U.S. military attacks on Iran” and “President Trump ordering the attacks,” finding no statistically significant difference in how voters responded to each wording.

The data also reveals a distinct partisan divide:

• Republicans: 75% approve, 24% disapprove.
• Democrats: 3% approve, 97% disapprove.
• Independents: 27% approve, 73% disapprove.

Despite strong overall support among Republicans, the poll reveals a notable split within the party itself.

Split Within the GOP

• MAGA Republicans: 88% approve.
• Non-MAGA Republicans: 28% approve, 72% disapprove.

This points to the fact that opposition to the strikes is not limited to Democrats and independents but is also present among more traditional or less Trump-aligned conservatives.

The poll notes that “dissent within the GOP comes from those not part of the MAGA base.”

Broader Skepticism of Military Intervention

The Iran strikes appear to reflect a larger trend of growing resistance to using U.S. military force abroad.

When asked more broadly about using military force to “force changes in other countries”:

• 64% oppose such actions.
• 35% support them.

Breakdown by group:

• Democrats: 97% oppose.
• Independents: 78% oppose.
• Non-MAGA Republicans: 80% oppose.
• MAGA Republicans: 83% support.

This divide showcases a fundamental disagreement over America’s role in conflicts and as the “global police,” extending beyond the specific case of Iran.

Trump Approval Declines

The poll also shows a dip in President Trump’s overall approval rating around the same time as the military action:

• 42% approve of his job performance.
• 56% disapprove.
• Net approval: -14 points, the lowest of either of his terms.

Among independents, approval is noticeably weak:

• 26% approve, 66% disapprove.

While the poll does not directly attribute the drop to the Iran strikes, the timing suggests the issue could be contributing to the declining support, especially among voters outside the Republican base.

Independent Voters

Perhaps most significant for policymakers is the response from independents:

• Nearly three-quarters (73%) oppose the Iran strikes.
• Independents also strongly oppose broader military intervention.

In a swing state like Wisconsin, this group often determines election outcomes, which makes their opposition a potential issue for the GOP.

The Iran strikes come after a series of assertive foreign policy moves during Trump’s second term. According to the poll release, the administration has previously ordered military actions in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria, and has taken steps such as seizing Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro.

The buildup of these actions may be shaping voter views, contributing to broader concerns about the role of the U.S. military abroad.

The Marquette poll does not predict future policy decisions, but it provides a clear signal of where public opinion stands at the moment.

If tensions with Iran escalate, leaders may face pressure to justify further military involvement. At the same time, the political divide suggests that any policy response will likely be viewed through a deeply political lens.

For now, the data points to a cautious and skeptical public mood, particularly among voters who often decide close elections.

As the situation develops, those opinions could play a decisive role in shaping both U.S. foreign policy and the political landscape in Congress heading into the next election cycle.