Chris Taylor Leads Maria Lazar in Marquette Poll, Sparking Possible Liberal Majority in Wisconsin Government

Spring general election day is this Tuesday for a new Supreme Court justice in Wisconsin. In new Marquette Law School poll, Chris Taylor has support from 30% of voters while 22% favor Maria Lazar and 46% remain undecided. The poll surveyed 850 Wisconsin voters in early March with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Other key points include:

• Registered Republicans lean towards Lazar; Democrats strongly support Taylor.
• Voters have become more familiar with candidates since October, but 60% say they still have not heard enough to form an opinion.
• Majority of voters, 75%, incorrectly believe that the results will tip the ideological balance on the Supreme Court.
• About half of voters approve of the way the Supreme Court has been doing its job with 34% disapproving and 16% with no opinion.
• As of Monday, only 146,583 absentee ballots have been submitted, falling short to the 258,975 that were returned in last year’s election, according to the commission.

Low Stakes Make for Quiet Election Season

A year ago, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election drew national attention when Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, donated millions in support of conservative candidate Brad Schimel.

Stakes were high, with the race determining the ideological balance of the court. Political Milwaukee organizations were campaigning hard for both candidates.

Emiliano Camacho is studying nursing at UWM. He recalls seeing his social media flooded with ads for each election and people spreading information around campus.

“They were everywhere, always giving me pamphlets, bar codes to sign up to vote, asking me if I had already voted,” he said. “Sometimes, even after I told them I’ve already voted, they said, ‘just take one and give it to your friends.’”

Despite Musk handing out $1 million dollar checks to Wisconsinites at a Green Bay rally, liberal candidate Susan Crawford was elected, making it one of the most expensive Supreme Court elections, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign.

This year, both candidates are not as well-known even a couple of weeks before voting day. According to the Marquette poll, only 15% of voters say they have a clear idea on what Lazar stands for, and only 21% are familiar with Taylor’s ideas. Familiarity has increased slightly since October, but the March poll finds that 62% have not heard enough about Lazar, and 59% have not heard enough about Taylor.

Camacho is registered to vote in Wisconsin and plans on voting this election, but he has not heard much about it and was reminded about the election after his mother casted her early ballot.

“To be honest, I have not seen anything,” he said. “I feel like all of my social media feed is flooded with the war in Iran right now. Anything political, it is mostly just what’s happening in Iran right now.”

Taylor Takes the Lead with Democratic Support

Among those who say they are likely to vote; Taylor has an 8% lead over Lazar. In February, it was found that 22% supported Taylor and only 15% supported Lazar with 62% undecided, according to the Marquette poll.

The court is 4-3 with a liberal majority, and with a conservative justice stepping down; the majority will not change or have five liberal justices.

While the Supreme Court is officially nonpartisan, online ads reveal party-aligned morals for each candidate. For example, YouTube ads emphasize Taylor’s openness to abortion rights and Lazar’s support for limits on it.

Among registered Democrats, 65% say the outcome of the election is very important to them. Although this election is not the most compelling, it could set up Democrats to slowly become the majority in the state government.

High Hopes for Democratic Future in Wisconsin

A liberal win this month could be the first steppingstone to a blue wave in Wisconsin. Since the beginning of the new year, seven Republican lawmakers have announced their retirement at the gubernatorial, legislative and judicial levels. Including, Wisconsin
Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

Candidate Taylor holds a huge fundraising and ad spending advantage over her opponent, causing high hopes for next year’s Supreme Court race. If Taylor wins, liberals will have a four-year streak over conservatives.

Democrats are already looking forward to next year’s open race after conservative justice Annette Ziegler announced she will not be on the 2027 ballot. If liberals win the next few elections, they will hold the majority in Wisconsin for the first time in 16 years.

Camacho says if people are unfamiliar with what is going on, they should do quick Google search on what each candidate represents, make a decision and vote on election day.

“I think it’s very important for future elections and I think it’s going to be a little snowball effect. It eventually leads to something bigger,” said Camacho.