Recent Marquette Polls Predict Judge Taylor’s Win—Her Numbers Tell the Story

Liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice candidate Chris Taylor is pulling ahead in the polls over her conservative opponent, Maria Lazar, but it is a close call, according to the Marquette Law School Poll released Tuesday. 

This election will not significantly impact the ideological balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, making it less pivotal than the last race that tipped the court in a liberal direction. After the 2025 election, liberals currently hold a 4-3 court majority.

Conservative Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley won a 10-year term in 2016. The elected official from this race will fill Bradley’s seat. The court majority will either remain unchanged or increase to five liberal justices. Seventy-five percent of the registered voters surveyed this year incorrectly believed that the results would affect the balance, whereas in the last election, 83% understood that the outcome would affect the majority. 

Thirty percent of surveyed voters who are certain they will vote in the election support Taylor, while 22% favor Lazar. Forty-six percent of the voters declared themselves still undecided. These numbers have improved since the data was collected in February. February polls show that 62% were undecided, 22% were in support of Taylor, and 15% supported Lazar. 

The polls reported that democratic voters have aligned strongly with Taylor’s campaign and have the numerical advantage thus far. The data shows that 77% of Democrats surveyed say they are certain to vote, whereas only 59% of Republicans expressed certainty. Sixty-five percent of Democrats and 60% of Republicans stated that they follow politics closely enough to understand what is going on most of the time. 

Supreme Court Vote among Registered Voters 

The polls surveyed 850 registered Wisconsin voters, asking if the election were held today, who they would vote for. The results revealed that Republican and Democratic voters identify strongly with Lazar and Taylor, respectively. Democratic registered voters are more adamant about voting in this election.

Among Republican registered voters, 30% said that they would vote for Lazar, 6% for Taylor, 49% and 23% said they were not planning on voting in this election. The remainder declared themselves undecided.

The registered Democratic voters surveyed stated that 43% would vote for Taylor if the election were today. Five percent said that they would vote for Lazar, 48% were undecided and only 3% stated they would not vote in this election. The Marquette poll disclaimed that there is a margin of error of about four percentage points, give or take, in this poll. 

Supreme Court Vote among Likely Voters

Marquette also polled 597 likely voters in the surveys. These findings showed that likely-to-vote Republicans and Democrats identified more strongly with their respective candidates, with fewer undecided in both parties. Two percent of Republican and none of the Democratic likely voters said they would not vote in this election. Forty-four percent of Republicans said they would vote for Lazar, and 50% of Democrats stated that Taylor would have their vote. Overall, all likely voters preferred Taylor to Lazar by eight percentage points. The margin of error given for this survey is give or take five percentage points for each category. 

Favorability and Clarity of the Chris Taylor and Maria Lazar’s Campaigns

Marquette conducted a series of surveys between the dates of Oct. 11, 2025, and March 18 of this year on the favorability of each candidate. They revealed that each candidate’s favorability and unfavorability have increased since they became bigger household names in the past months.

Lazar’s favorability has increased from 7% to 13% since the survey was first taken. Her unfavourability also increased from 8% to 18%. Taylor’s favorability has increased from 7% to 20%, and her unfavourability has risen from 9% to 15%. 

Since October, the polls have shown that voters have a clearer idea of what each candidate stands for. Clarity of Lazar’s platform has grown from 10% to 25%. Clarity of what Taylor stands for has grown from 11% to 28% in recent months. 

Chris Taylor and Maria Lazar Campaign Visibility

The media coverage and visibility of the election and candidates have been improving. The percentage of voters heard or read a lot about the debate increased from 6% in February to 12% in March.

Voters who reported seeing the race just a little in the media increased from 55% to 57% in March. Each candidate’s individual visibility also improved with these numbers. Lazar’s visibility increased by 16% and Taylor’s by 19% over the two months. The percentage of voters who had heard nothing about the race decreased from 38% to 31%. Compared to the 2025 election, during February, 39% of voters reported hearing or reading about the race.